Masalah Monty Hall: Perbedaan antara revisi

== Analisis Bayes ==

Analisis masalah yang menggunakan formalisme teori [[probabilitas Bayes]] ([[#refGill2002|Gill 2002]]) menerangkan secara eksplisit pentingnya penetapan asumsi dalam masalah ini. Dalam teori ini, probabilitas diasosiasikan dengan proposisi dan tergantung pada informasi ''latar belakang'' apapun yang diketahui.Untuk masalah ini, informasi latar belakangnya adalah peraturan permainan, dan proposisnya adalah:

 

 

Sebagai contoh, <math>C_1\,</math> menandakan proposisi ''mobil di belakang pintu 1'' dan <math>H_{12}\,</math> menandakan ''pembawa acara membuka pintu 2 setelah pemain memilih pintu 1''. Dengan mengindikasikan informasi latar dengan <math>I\,</math>, asumsi dapat dinyatakan secara formal sebagai berikut:

 

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* <cite id=refBapeswaraRao1992>Bapeswara Rao, V. V. and Rao, M. Bhaskara (1992). "A three-door game show and some of its variants". ''The Mathematical Scientist'' '''17'''(2): 89–94.</cite>

* <cite id=refBarbeau2000>Barbeau, Edward (2000). ''Mathematical Fallacies, Flaws and Flimflam''. The Mathematical Association of America. ISBN 0-88385-529-1.</cite>

|authorlink=Keith Devlin

|date=July – August 2003

* <cite id=refFalk1992>Falk, Ruma (1992). "A closer look at the probabilities of the notorius three prisoners," ''Cognition'' '''43''': 197–223.</cite>

* <cite id=refFlitney2002>Flitney, Adrian P. and [[Derek Abbott|Abbott, Derek]] (2002). "Quantum version of the Monty Hall problem," ''Physical Review A'', '''65''', Art. No. 062318, 2002.</cite>

* <cite id=refFoxandLevav2004>Fox, Craig R. and Levav, Jonathan (2004). "Partition-Edit-Count: Naive Extensional Reasoning in Judgment of Conditional Probability," ''Journal of Experimental Psychology: General'' '''133'''(4): 626-642.</cite>

* <cite id=refGardner1959>[[Martin Gardner|Gardner, Martin]] (1959). "Mathematical Games" column, ''Scientific American'', October 1959, pp. 180–182. Reprinted in ''The Second Scientific American Book of Mathematical Puzzles and Diversions''.</cite>

* <cite id=refGill2002>[[Jeff Gill|Gill, Jeff]] (2002). ''Bayesian Methods'', pp. 8–10. CRC Press. ISBN 1-58488-288-3.</cite>

* <cite id=refGillman1992>[[Leonard Gillman|Gillman, Leonard]] (1992). "The Car and the Goats," ''American Mathematical Monthly'' '''99''': 3–7.</cite>

* <cite id=refGranbergandBrown1995>Granberg, Donald and Brown, Thad A. (1999). "The Monty Hall Dilemma," ''Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin'' '''21'''(7): 711-729.</cite>

* <cite id=refGrinsteadandSnell2006>{{cite book|author=Grinstead, Charles M. and Snell, J. Laurie|title = Grinstead and Snell’s Introduction to Probability|url=http://www.math.dartmouth.edu/~prob/prob/prob.pdf|accessdate=2008-04-02|date=[[2006-07-04]]|format=PDF|others=Online version of ''Introduction to Probability, 2nd edition'', published by the American Mathematical Society, Copyright (C) 2003 Charles M. Grinstead and J. Laurie Snell.}}</cite>

* <cite id=refMagliozziandMagliozzi1998>{{cite book|author=Magliozzi, Tom; Magliozzi, Ray|authorlink=Tom Magliozzi|title = Haircut in Horse Town: & Other Great Car Talk Puzzlers|publisher = Diane Pub Co.|year=1998|id=ISBN 0-7567-6423-8}}</cite>

* <cite id=refMartin1989>Martin, Phillip (1989). "The Monty Hall Trap", ''Bridge Today'', May–June 1989. Reprinted in Granovetter, Pamela and Matthew, ed. (1993), ''For Experts Only'', Granovetter Books.</cite>

* <cite id=refMorganetal1991>Morgan, J. P., Chaganty, N. R., Dahiya, R. C., & Doviak, M. J. (1991). [http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-1305(199111)45%3A4%3C284%3ALMADTP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7 "Let's make a deal: The player's dilemma,"] ''American Statistician'' '''45''': 284-287.</cite>

* <cite id=refSelvin1975a>Selvin, Steve (1975a). "A problem in probability" (letter to the editor). ''American Statistician'' '''29'''(1): 67 (February 1975).</cite>

* <cite id=refSelvin1975b>Selvin, Steve (1975b). "On the Monty Hall problem" (letter to the editor). ''American Statistician'' '''29'''(3): 134 (August 1975).</cite>

* <cite id=refTierney1991>[[John Tierney (journalist)|Tierney, John]] (1991). "[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CEFDD1E3FF932A15754C0A967958260 Behind Monty Hall's Doors: Puzzle, Debate and Answer?]", ''The New York Times'', [[1991-07-21]]. Retrieved on [[2008-01-18]].</cite>

* <cite id=refTierney2008>Tierney, John (2008). "[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08tier.html And Behind Door No. 1, a Fatal Flaw]", ''The New York Times'', [[2008-04-08]]. Retrieved on [[2008-04-08]].</cite>

* <cite id=refvosSavant1990>[[Marilyn vos Savant|vos Savant, Marilyn]] (1990). "Ask Marilyn" column, ''Parade Magazine'' p. 16 ([[9 September]] [[1990]]).</cite>

* <cite id=refvosSavant2006>vos Savant, Marilyn (2006). "Ask Marilyn" column, ''Parade Magazine'' p. 6 ([[26 November]] [[2006]]).</cite>

* <cite id=refWilliams2004>{{cite web

<!-- {{cite journal | author = Marilyn vos Savant | date = [[November 26]]–[[December 2]] [[2006]] | title = Ask Marilyn | journal = Parade Classroom Teacher's Guide | pages = 3 | url = http://www.paradeclassroom.com/tg_folders/2006/1126/TG_11262006.pdf | format = [[PDF]] | accessdate = 2006-11-27 }} -->

== Pranala luar ==

* {{dmoz|Science/Math/Recreations/Famous_Problems/Monty_Hall/|Monty Hall}}

* "[http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/MontyHallParadox/ Monty Hall Paradox]" oleh Matthew R. McDougal, [[The Wolfram Demonstrations Project]] (simulasi)

* [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08monty.html The Monty Hall Problem] di ''The New York Times'' (simulasi)