Referendum kemerdekaan Skotlandia 2014: Perbedaan antara revisi
Konten dihapus Konten ditambahkan
Tidak ada ringkasan suntingan |
Fitur saranan suntingan: 3 pranala ditambahkan. |
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(15 revisi perantara oleh 9 pengguna tidak ditampilkan) | |||
Baris 6:
| total =3623344
| electorate = 4283392
| map = Scottish independence referendum results.
| mapdivision = Wilayah Dewan
| notes = Catatan: Gradasi warna menandakan kekuatan suara
}}
{{Politik Skotlandia}}
'''Referendum kemerdekaan Skotlandia 2014''' adalah [[referendum]] yang mempertimbangkan apakah [[Skotlandia]] harus menjadi [[kemerdekaan Skotlandia|negara merdeka]] atau tidak.<!-- no bolding per [[WP:BOLDTITLE]] --> yang diadakan pada tanggal, 18 September 2014.<ref name="BBC 2013-03-21">{{cite news
Setelah perjanjian antara [[pemerintah Skotlandia]] dan [[pemerintah Britania Raya|Britania Raya]] ditandatangani,<ref name="number10.gov.uk">{{cite web|url=
[[Yes Scotland]] adalah grup kampanye utama yang mendukung kemerdekaan, sedangkan [[Better Together (kampanye)|Better Together]] adalah grup kampanye utama yang menolak kemerdekaan. Referendum ini juga melibatkan berbagai [[Dukungan pada referendum kemerdekaan Skotlandia 2014|grup kampanye lainnya, partai politik, perusahaan, surat kabar, dan tokoh ternama]].
== Tanggal dan persyaratan ==
[[
Pemerintah Skotlandia mengumumkan pada 21 Maret 2013 bahwa referendum akan diadakan tanggal 18 September 2014.<ref name="BBC 2013-03-21" /> Sejumlah berita menduga [[musim gugur]] 2014 dipilih oleh pemerintah karena dekat dengan ulang tahun [[Pertempuran Bannockburn]] ke-700 (meski ulang tahunnya jatuh pada bulan Juni),<ref name = "guardian 10 jan 2012">{{cite web|author=Severin Carrell and Nicholas Watt |url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jan/10/scottish-independence-salmond-poll-date |title=Scottish independence: Alex Salmond sets poll date – and defies London | Politics |publisher=The Guardian |date= |accessdate=11 October 2012}}</ref><ref name="heraldscotland1">{{cite web|url=http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/bannockburn-date-mooted-for-referendum.16330813 |title=Bannockburn date mooted for referendum |publisher=Herald Scotland |date=2 January 2012 |accessdate=11 October 2012}}</ref> namun klaim tersebut dibantah oleh Alex Salmond.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jan/11/scottish-independence-referendum-autumn-2014|title=Scottish independence referendum: why autumn 2014?|first=Severin|last=Carrell|work=www.guardian.co.uk|publisher=Guardian News and Media Limited|date=11 January 2012|accessdate=12 August 2012}}</ref> Berita lainnya juga menduga musim gugur 2014 dipilih karena Skotlandia
Menurut 2010 Draft Bill, orang-orang berikut berhak memberi suara dalam referendum:<ref name=ScottishGovernmentReferendumBillConsultationPaper25Feb2010/>
Baris 33:
Bulan Januari 2012, anggota Parlemen Skotlandia dari Partai Buruh [[Elaine Murray]] memimpin perdebatan seputar perluasan cakupan pemilih hingga [[bangsa Skotlandia|warga Skot]] yang tinggal di luar Skotlandia, termasuk sekitar 800.000 orang Skot yang tersebar di seluruh Britania Raya.<ref name = "extended vote"/> Rencana ini ditentang oleh pemerintah Skotlandia yang berpendapat hal tersebut akan menambah rumit referendum dan mengutip pernyataan [[Komite Hak Asasi Manusia Perserikatan Bangsa-Bangsa]] bahwa sebuah referendum yang didasarkan pada kriteria alih-alih tempat tinggal akan diragukan oleh negara-negara lain.<ref name = "extended vote">{{cite news|url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-16607480|title=Scottish independence: SNP dismisses ex-pat voting call|work=BBC News|publisher=BBC|date=18 January 2012|accessdate=19 January 2012}}</ref> Di House of Lords, [[Elizabeth Symons, Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean|Baroness Symons]] berpendapat bahwa seluruh Britania Raya harus diizinkan memberi suara mengenai kemerdekaan Skotlandia, karena dampaknya akan dirasakan oleh seluruh negeri. Argumen ini ditolak oleh pemerintah Britania Raya. [[Jim Wallace, Baron Wallace of Tankerness|Lord Wallace]] memaparkan fakta bahwa sejak 1973 hanya 2 dari 11 referendum yang diselenggarakan di seluruh Britania Raya.<ref name = "extended vote"/>
== Survei ==
=== Dua opsi ===
==== 2013 ====
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
|-
!! style="width:100px;"| Tanggal<br>survei !! style="width:350px;"|Organisasi survei!! class="unsortable" style="width:65px;"| Ukuran sampel!! class="unsortable" style="background:#008142; color:white; width:100px;"| Ya!! class="unsortable" style="background:#dc241f; color:white; width:100px;"|Tidak!! class="unsortable" style="background:gray; color:white; width:90px;"| Belum memutuskan!! class="unsortable" style="width:80px;"| Selisih
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-09-13" | 10-13 Sep || [http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-danger-for-no-camp-1-3094155 ICM/Scotland on Sunday] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130918045553/http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-new-poll-danger-for-no-camp-1-3094155 |date=2013-09-18 }} || 1,002 || 32% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''49%''' || 19% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 17%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-09-05" | 30 Agt - 5 Sep || [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/scots-support-for-independence-37-for-union-47-poll-shows.html Panelbase/Sunday Times] || 1,002 || 37% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''47%'''|| 16% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 10%
Baris 46:
| data-sort-value="2013-08-28" | 23-28 Agt || [http://www.panelbase.com/news/SNPPollTables020903.pdf Panelbase/Scottish National Party] || 1,043 || style="background:#9f9;"| '''44%''' || 43% || 13% || style="background:#008142; color:white;"| 1%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-08-27" | 21–27 Agt || [http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-one-in-four-will-vote-yes-1-3073754 TNS BMRB] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130907020433/http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-one-in-four-will-vote-yes-1-3073754 |date=2013-09-07 }} || 1,067 || 25% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''47%''' || 28% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 22%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-08-22" | 19–22 Agt || [http://news.stv.tv/politics/237974-yougov-survey-on-independence-referendum-voting-intentions/ YouGov/Devo Plus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140629080011/http://news.stv.tv/politics/237974-yougov-survey-on-independence-referendum-voting-intentions/ |date=2014-06-29 }} || 1,171 || 29% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''59%''' || 10% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 30%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-08-16" | 16 Agt || [http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/424454/EXCLUSIVE-Fears-of-exodus-if-Scots-vote-to-split Angus Reid/Daily Express] || 549 || 34% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''47%''' || 19% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 13%
Baris 56:
| data-sort-value="2013-05-16" | 10–16 Mei || [http://www.panelbase.com/news/TheSundayTimesScottishPollTables190513.pdf Panelbase/Sunday Times] || 1,004 || 36% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''44%''' || 20% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 8%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-05-05" | 29 Apr – 5 Mei || [http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/SPOMMay13/Scotland_SPOM_May13_Tables.pdf Ipsos MORI/The Times] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305195033/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/SPOMMay13/Scotland_SPOM_May13_Tables.pdf |date=2016-03-05 }} || 1,001 || 31% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''59%''' || 10% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 28%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-04-02" | 20 Mar – 2 Apr || [http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/scottish-independence-data-tables-8-apr-2013_1365519836.pdf TNS BMRB] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130821063623/http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/scottish-independence-data-tables-8-apr-2013_1365519836.pdf |date=2013-08-21 }} || 1,002 || 30% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''51%''' || 19% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 21%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-03-22" | 18–22 Mar || [http://www.panelbase.com/news/TheSundayTimesScottishPollTables250313.pdf Panelbase/Sunday Times] || 885 || 36% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''46%''' || 18% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 10%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-02-28" | 20–28 Feb || [http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/nuclear-weapons-scot-independence-poll-13-mar-2013_1363172540.pdf TNS BMRB/Scottish CND] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130821063511/http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/nuclear-weapons-scot-independence-poll-13-mar-2013_1363172540.pdf |date=2013-08-21 }} || 1,001 || 33% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''52%''' || 15% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 19%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-02-09" | 4–9 Feb || [http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/SPOMFeb13/Scotland_SPOMFeb13_tables_130213.pdf Ipsos MORI/The Times] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305195015/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/SPOMFeb13/Scotland_SPOMFeb13_tables_130213.pdf |date=2016-03-05 }} || 1,003 || 34% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''55%''' || 11% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 21%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-02-01" | 30 Jan – 1 Feb || [http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/2013.02.03_Referendum_SCO.pdf Angus Reid]{{Pranala mati|date=Maret 2021 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} || 1,003 || 32% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''47%''' || 20% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 15%
|-
|data-sort-value="2013-01-21" | 11–21 Jan || [http://www.panelbase.com/news/TheSundayTimesScottishPollTables280113.pdf Panelbase/Sunday Times] || 1,004 || 34% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''47%''' || 19% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 13%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-01-09" | 3–9 Jan || [http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/sip14jan13_1358166616.pdf TNS BMRB] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131105064709/http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/sip14jan13_1358166616.pdf |date=2013-11-05 }} || 1,012 || 28% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''48%''' || 24% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 20%
|-
| data-sort-value="2013-01-04" | 3–4 Jan || [http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2013.01.06_Referendum_SCO.pdf Angus Reid] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130310050748/http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2013.01.06_Referendum_SCO.pdf |date=2013-03-10 }} || 573 || 32% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''50%''' || 16% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 18%
|}
==== 2012 ====
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
|-
Baris 82:
| data-sort-value="2012-10-24" | 22–24 Okt || [http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4s8ieqi4i7/DC%20Thompson%20Results%20121024_Website.pdf YouGov/DC Thompson] || 1,004 || 29% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''55%''' || 14% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 26%
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-10-19" | 9–19 Okt || [http://www.panelbase.com/news/TheSundayTimesScottishPollTables231012.pdf Panelbase/Sunday Times] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141030231534/http://www.panelbase.com/news/TheSundayTimesScottishPollTables231012.pdf |date=2014-10-30 }} || 972 || 37% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''45%''' || 17% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 8%
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-10-15" | 15 Okt || colspan="8" | '''[[Perjanjian Edinburgh (2012)]]'''
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-10-15" | 8–15 Okt || [http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/SPOM_Oct12/Scotland_SPOM_Oct12_charts.pdf Ipsos MORI/The Times] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303183413/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/SPOM_Oct12/Scotland_SPOM_Oct12_charts.pdf |date=2016-03-03 }} || 1,003 || 30% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''58%''' || 12% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 28%
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-10-04" | 26 Sep – 4 Okt || [http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/data-tables-independence-poll-oct-2012_1349695328.pdf TNS BMRB] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131126162307/http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/data-tables-independence-poll-oct-2012_1349695328.pdf |date=2013-11-26 }} || 995 || 28% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''53%''' || 19% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 25%
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-06-20" | 17–20 Jun || [http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dox5hyvdwv/Fabian%20Society%20Results%20-%20120720%20website%20version.pdf YouGov/Fabian Society] || 1,029 || 30% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''54%''' || 16% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 24%
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-06-14" | 7–14 Jun || [http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-independence-poll-tables-june-2012.pdf Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303204538/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-independence-poll-tables-june-2012.pdf |date=2016-03-03 }} || 1,005 || 35% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''55%''' || 11% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 20%
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-01-29" | 27–29 Jan || [http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/pa_Scotland_SPOM_independence_tables_31_January_2012.pdf Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151102031637/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/pa_Scotland_SPOM_independence_tables_31_January_2012.pdf |date=2015-11-02 }} || 1,005 || 39% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''50%''' || 11% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 11%
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-01-09" | 9–11 Jan || [http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1sqqi0wpxe/YG-Archive-Sun-ScottishIndependence-SUMMARY-120110.pdf YouGov/The Sun] || 1,002 || 33% || style="background:#f8c1be;"| '''53%''' || 14% || style="background:#dc241f; color:white;"| 20%
|}
==== 2011 ====
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
|-
!! style="width:100px;"| Tanggal<br>survei !! style="width:350px;"|Organisasi survei!! class="unsortable" style="width:65px;"| Ukuran sampel!! class="unsortable" style="background:#008142; color:white; width:100px;"| Ya!! class="unsortable" style="background:#dc241f; color:white; width:100px;"|Tidak!! class="unsortable" style="background:gray; color:white; width:90px;"| Belum memutuskan!! class="unsortable" style="width:80px;"| Selisih
|-
| data-sort-value="2011-08-31" | 24–31 Agt || [http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/independence-poll-august-2011_1315215048.pdf TNS BMRB/The Herald] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131126115638/http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/independence-poll-august-2011_1315215048.pdf |date=2013-11-26 }} || 1,007 || style="background:#9f9;"| '''39%''' || 38% || 23% || style="background:#008142; color:white;"| 1%
|-
| data-sort-value="2011-05-05" | 5 Mei || colspan="8" | '''[[Pemilihan umum Parlemen Skotlandia 2011]]'''
|}
=== Tiga opsi ===
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px"
|-
!! style="width:100px;"| Tanggal<br>survei !! style="width:350px;"|Organisasi survei!! class="unsortable" style="background:#008142; color:white; width:100px;"| Merdeka!! class="unsortable" style="background:orange; color:white; width:100px;"|Devolusi<br>maksimal!! class="unsortable" style="background:#dc241f; color:white; width:100px;"|Status Quo!! class="unsortable" style="background:gray; color:white; width:90px;"| Belum memutuskan!! class="unsortable" style="width:80px;"| Sumber
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-10-26" | '''26 Oktober 2012''' || YouGov || 23% || 41% || 25% || 11% ||<ref name = "courier">{{cite news|url=http://www.thecourier.co.uk/News/Politics/article/25617/courier-poll-a-blow-to-snp-s-independence-hopes.html#.UIqvZXyAWbs.twitter|title=Courier poll a blow to SNP's independence hopes|work=The Courier
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-06-14" | '''14 Juni 2012''' || Ipsos MORI || 27% || 41% || 29% || 4% ||<ref name = "polling report"/>
|-
| data-sort-value="2012-01-13" | '''13 Januari 2012''' || [[ICM Research|ICM]] || 26% || 26% || 33% || 10% ||<ref name = "polling report">{{cite web |url=http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence |title=UK Polling Report |publisher=UK Polling Report |date= |accessdate=11 October 2012 |archive-date=2013-12-27 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131227204145/http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence |dead-url=yes }}</ref>
|-
| data-sort-value="2011-11-01" | '''1 November 2011''' || TNS BMRB || 28% || 33% || 29% || 10% ||<ref name = "polling report"/>
|}
== Dampak potensial ==
Irvine Welsh berpendapat bahwa kemerdekaan Skotlandia akan memperbaiki "[[proses perdamaian Irlandia Utara]]". Di situs Bella Caledonia, ia menulis: "Jika kita menolak mengikuti kebijakan imperialis politik Britania Raya, banyak kesempatan baru yang terbuka. Misalnya, Irlandia sebagai bangsa berdaulat kelak mampu melihat dirinya sebagai bagian dari entitas geografis dan budaya yang sama. Hal ini justru membuka kesempatan dalam perkembangan proses perdamaian di Irlandia Utara".<ref name="irvinewelsh">{{cite web|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jan/10/scottish-independence-british-irvine-welsh |title=Scottish independence will allow us to become more British, says Irvine Welsh |publisher=Guardian |date=10 January 2013}}</ref>
Sejumlah politikus dari Partai Sosialis Skotlandia menanggapi panjang lebar seputar dampak kemerdekaan. [[Alan McCombes]] menulis bahwa "penghapusan warna biru dari bendera Union Jack dan pembubaran negara Britania Raya yang berusia 300 tahun akan [menjadi] tamparan psikologis yang parah bagi kekuatan-kekuatan kapitalisme dan konservatisme di Britania, Eropa, dan [[Amerika Serikat]]," dan "simbolisme yang muncul sama hebatnya seperti pembubaran Uni Soviet pada awal 1990-an". Ia juga mengklaim bahwa meski pembubaran Britania Raya tidak mengakibatkan kemunculan "sosialisme instan", pembubaran ini akan merintis "peralihan keseimbangan ideologi dan dorongan kelas".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://links.org.au/node/2323|title=Why the left should back independence|date=2011-05-19|accessdate=2013-04-01}}</ref> Pada Mei 2013, [[Colin Fox (politikus)|Colin Fox]] menyebut pemungutan suara kemerdekaan ini sebagai "kekalahan besar pemerintah Britania Raya dan kekuasaannya atas ekonomi, masyarakat, budaya, dan politik kita," sekaligus sebagai kesempatan untuk "[menolak] neo-liberalisme, korporatisme, dan finansialisasi ekonomi dan hubungan kelas kita yang sudah ada".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-scotland-s-road-to-socialism-1-2947011|title=Scottish independence: Scotland's Road to Socialism|date=29 May 2013|accessdate=29 May 2013}}</ref>
Sejumlah survei menunjukkan adanya peningkatan dukungan kuat bagi [[Majelis Nasional Wales]] jika Skotlandia memilih merdeka.<ref>{{cite web|author=Matt Withers |url=http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/02/02/scottish-independence-would-add-to-calls-for-more-devolution-to-wales-91466-30254322 |title=Voters would say "No" to an independent Wales: poll – Wales News – News |publisher=WalesOnline |date= |accessdate=11 October 2012}}</ref>
== Lihat pula ==
* [[Konstitusi Britania Raya]]
* [[Devo Plus]]
Baris 137:
* [[Politik Britania Raya]]
== Referensi ==
{{Reflist|30em|refs=
Baris 148:
|date=25 February 2010
|accessdate=25 February 2010
|archiveurl=
|archivedate=
|dead-url=no
}}</ref>
Baris 161 ⟶ 162:
|archiveurl=http://www.webcitation.org/5jh1lijyW
|archivedate=10 September 2009
|
|
|
}}</ref>
Baris 180 ⟶ 181:
}}
== Pranala luar ==
{{wikinews|Scotland sets date for referendum}}
* [http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Home Scottish Government] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150214064953/http://www.scotland.gov.uk/home |date=2015-02-14 }}
* [http://www.scotreferendum.com/ Scottish Government Referendum 2014 site]
* [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-18364699 BBC Q&A]
[[
[[Kategori:Sejarah Skotlandia]]
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