Konsensus ilmiah tentang perubahan iklim: Perbedaan antara revisi

{{About| konsensus ilmiah mengenai perubahan iklim dan derajat, penyebab dan konsekuensinya | persepsi dan kontroversi publik terkait|Opini publik tentang perubahan iklim|dan|kontroversi pemanasan global}}

 

 

'''Konsensus ilmiah tentang perubahan iklim''' adalah konsensus para ilmuwan iklim mengenai sejauh mana [[pemanasan global]] terjadi, kemungkinan penyebabnya, dan kemungkinan konsekuensinya. Saat ini, ada [[konsensus ilmiah]] yang kuat bahwa bumi sedang memanas dan bahwa pemanasan ini terutama disebabkan oleh aktivitas manusia. Konsensus ini didukung oleh berbagai studi tentang [[Opini#Opini ilmiah|opini ilmuwan]] dan oleh pernyataan posisi organisasi ilmiah, yang banyak di antaranya secara eksplisit setuju dengan laporan sintesis [[Panel Antarpemerintah tentang Perubahan Iklim]] (IPCC).

* Aktivitas manusia (terutama emisi [[gas rumah kaca]]) adalah [[Atribusi perubahan iklim|penyebab utama]].

* Emisi yang berkelanjutan akan meningkatkan kemungkinan dan tingkat keparahan [[Efek pemanasan global|efek global]] dari perubahan iklim.

 

Beberapa studi tentang konsensus telah dilakukan.<ref name=ConsensusOnConsensus2016>{{Cite journal |last=Cook|first=John |last2=Oreskes|first2=Naomi |last3=Doran|first3=Peter T. |last4=Anderegg|first4=William R. L. |last5=Verheggen|first5=Bart |last6=Maibach|first6=Ed W. |last7=Carlton|first7=J. Stuart |last8=Lewandowsky|first8=Stephan |last9=Skuce|first9=Andrew G. |last10=Green|first10=Sarah A. |last11=Nuccitelli|first11=Dana |last12=Jacobs|first12=Peter |last13=Richardson|first13=Mark |last14=Winkler|first14=Bärbel |last15=Painting|first15=Rob |last16=Rice|first16=Ken |date=2016|title=Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming|url=http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=4/a=048002|journal=Environmental Research Letters|language=en|volume=11|issue=4|page=048002|doi=10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002|issn=1748-9326|bibcode=2016ERL....11d8002C}}</ref> Di antara yang paling banyak dikutip adalah studi 2013 terhadap hampir 12.000 abstrak dari makalah yang [[Penelaahan sejawat|ditelaah sejawat]] tentang ilmu iklim yang diterbitkan sejak 1990, di mana lebih dari 4.000 makalah menyatakan pendapat tentang penyebab pemanasan global baru-baru ini. Dari jumlah tersebut, 97% setuju, secara eksplisit atau implisit, bahwa pemanasan global sedang terjadi dan disebabkan oleh manusia.<ref name=EnvResLett_20130513>{{cite journal |last1=Cook |first1=John |last2=Nuccitelli |first2=Dana |last3=Green |first3=Sarah A. |last4=Richardson |first4=Mark |last5=Winkler |first5=Bärbel |last6=Painting |first6=Rob |last7=Way |first7=Robert |last8=Jacobs |first8=Peter |last9=Skuce |first9=Andrew |title=Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature |journal=Environ. Res. Lett. |date=May 15, 2013 |volume=8 |issue=2 |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 |url=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 |publisher=IOP Publishing Ltd.}}</ref><ref name=YaleClimateComms_20130529>{{cite web |title=Scientific and Public Perspectives on Climate Change / Scientists’ vs. Public Understanding of Human-Caused Global Warming |url=https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/scientific-and-public-perspectives-on-climate-change/ |website=climatecommunication.yale.edu |publisher=Yale University |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20190417081857/http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/scientific-and-public-perspectives-on-climate-change/ |archivedate=April 17, 2019 |date=May 29, 2013 |deadurl=no }}</ref> "Sangat mungkin"<ref name=4thNationalClimateAssessment_20181123>{{cite web |title=Climate Science Special Report / Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I /Executive Summary / Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report |url=https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |website=globalchange.gov |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20190614150544/https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/ |archivedate=June 14, 2019 |date=November 23, 2018 |doi=10.7930/J0DJ5CTG |deadurl=no }}</ref> bahwa pemanasan global disebabkan oleh "aktivitas manusia, terutama emisi [[gas rumah kaca]]"<ref name=4thNationalClimateAssessment_20181123/> di [[Atmosfer Bumi|atmosfer]].<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus |title=Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming|work=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|publisher=National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)|access-date=2018-08-18|quote=Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20190617103005/https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ |archivedate= June 17, 2019 |deadurl=no }}</ref> Perubahan alami saja akan memiliki sedikit efek pendinginan, bukan efek pemanasan.<ref name="AR4-warming-unequivocal" /><ref name="ipcc">{{citation

SPM.4.1 Long‐term mitigation pathways, in: [http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf Summary for Policymakers], p.15 (archived [https://web.archive.org/web/20140702014732/http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf 2 July 2014)], in {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3|2014}}

</ref>

[[Akademi sains|Akademi-akademi sains]] nasional dan internasional dan [[Persatuan terpelajar|persatuan-persatuan ilmiah]] telah menilai [[opini ilmiah]] terkini tentang pemanasan global. Penilaian ini umumnya konsisten dengan kesimpulan [[Panel Antarpemerintah tentang Perubahan Iklim]].

 

<!--ref name="2010_tpgmarapr18">[http://64.207.34.58/StaticContent/3/TPGs/2010_TPGMarApr.pdf "Climate Change and Society Governance"], ''The Professional Geologist'', March/April 2010, p. 33</ref-->

 

 

<ref name="AAP ''Global Climate Change and Children's Health''">{{citation |url=http://aappolicy.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/pediatrics;120/5/1149 |title=AAP ''Global Climate Change and Children's Health'' |year=2007 |access-date=2009-02-13 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090722104801/http://aappolicy.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/pediatrics;120/5/1149 |archive-date=2009-07-22 |dead-url=yes |df= }} "There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from [[extreme weather events]] and [[natural disasters]], increases in climate-sensitive [[infectious diseases]], increases in [[Air Pollutions Effect on Pulmonary diseases and Children|air pollution–related illness]], and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups."</ref>

<ref name="AIBS Position Statements">{{citation |url=http://www.aibs.org/position-statements |title=AIBS Position Statements}} "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver."</ref>

 

 

<!--ref name="aipg16">[http://www.aipg.org/StaticContent/anonymous/state_and_federal/Climate%20Change%20Letters.pdf AIPG Climate Change Letters sent to U.S. Government Officials]</ref-->

<ref name="aipg17">{{cite web |title=The Professional Geologist publications |url=http://www.aipg.org/Publications/TPGPublic.html |accessdate=2012-07-30 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20120305085445/http://www.aipg.org/Publications/TPGPublic.html |archivedate=2012-03-05}}</ref>

 

 

<ref name="AMA ''Climate Change and Human Health'' — 2004. Revised 2008.">{{citation |url=http://www.ama.com.au/node/4442 |title=AMA ''Climate Change and Human Health'' — 2004. Revised 2008. |year=2008 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090216083701/http://ama.com.au/node/4442 |archivedate=2009-02-16 |df= }} "The world's climate – our life-support system – is being altered in ways that are likely to pose significant direct and indirect challenges to health. While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases. Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of extreme events such as storms, floods, [[Heat wave|heatwaves]] and fires and the indirect effects of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the [[Food security|food]] and [[water supply]], resource conflicts and population shifts. Increases in average temperatures mean that alterations in the geographic range and seasonality of certain infections and diseases (including vector-borne diseases such as [[malaria]], [[dengue fever]], [[Ross River virus]] and food-borne infections such as [[Salmonellosis]]) may be among the first detectable impacts of climate change on human health. Human health is ultimately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA believes that measures which mitigate climate change will also benefit public health. Reducing GHGs should therefore be seen as a public health priority."</ref>

<ref name="American Medical Association Policy Statement">{{citation |url=http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/category/20275.html |title=American Medical Association Policy Statement |year=2008}} "Support the findings of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which states that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that these changes will negatively affect public health. Support educating the medical community on the potential adverse public health effects of global climate change, including topics such as population displacement, flooding, infectious and vector-borne diseases, and healthy water supplies."</ref>

 

 

<ref name="ametsoc22">{{cite web|url=http://www.ametsoc.org/POLICY/climatechangeresearch_2003.html |title=Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences Adopted by the AMS Council 9 February 2003 |publisher=Ametsoc.org |date=2003-02-09 |accessdate=2012-07-30}}</ref>

<ref name="australiancoralreefsociety">{{cite web|url=http://www.australiancoralreefsociety.org/ |title=Australian Coral Reef Society |publisher=Australian Coral Reef Society |accessdate=2012-07-30}}</ref>

 

 

<ref name="australiancoralreefsociety24">[http://www.australiancoralreefsociety.org/pdf/chadwick605a.pdf Australian Coral Reef Society official letter] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060322170802/http://www.australiancoralreefsociety.org/pdf/chadwick605a.pdf |date=2006-03-22 }}, June 16, 2006</ref>

<ref name="foxnews">{{cite web |url=http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249659,00.html |title=U.N. Report: Global Warming Man-Made, Basically Unstoppable |publisher=Fox News |accessdate=2012-07-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120630012604/http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249659,00.html |archive-date=2012-06-30 |dead-url=yes |df= }}</ref>

 

 

<ref name="geolsoc">{{cite web |url=http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/views/policy_statements/page7426.html |title=Geological Society - Climate change: evidence from the geological record |publisher=Geolsoc.org.uk |accessdate=2012-07-30 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20101110234112/http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/views/policy_statements/page7426.html |archivedate=2010-11-10 |df= }}</ref>

<ref name="iob">{{citation |url=http://www.iob.org/general.asp?section=science_policy/policy_issues&article=climate_change.xml |title=Institute of Biology policy page ‘Climate Change’}} "there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is mostly anthropogenic, ''ie'' due to human activity." As a consequence of global warming, they warn that a "rise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to occur. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of [[tropical diseases]] is also expected." Subsequently, the Institute of Biology advocates policies to reduce "greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the consequences of climate change are likely to be severe."</ref>

 

 

<ref name="iugg">{{cite web|url=http://www.iugg.org/resolutions/perugia07.pdf|title=IUGG Resolution 6|publisher=}}</ref>

 

 

<ref name="Letter to US Senators">{{citation |url=http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2009/media/1021climate_letter.pdf |title=Letter to US Senators |date=October 2009}}</ref>

<ref name="nationalacademies">[http://www.nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change], 2005</ref>

 

| year=2008

| title=Understanding and Responding to Climate Change. A brochure prepared by the US National Research Council (US NRC)

| author=US NRC

| url=http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/climate_change_2008_final.pdf

 

<ref name="nationalacademies5">{{cite web|url=http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/climatechangestatement.pdf|title=2008 Joint Science Academies’ Statement|publisher=}}</ref>

 

 

 

<ref name="nytimes">{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/23/business/worldbusiness/23energy.html|title=Panel Urges Global Shift on Sources of Energy|first=Andrew C.|last=Revkin|date=23 October 2007|publisher=|via=NYTimes.com}}</ref>

<ref name="Policy Statement, Climate Change and Energy">{{citation |url=http://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/representation/policy-positions/climate-change.cfm | title=Policy Statement, Climate Change and Energy |date=February 2007}} "Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environmental risk... We believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities. Engineers Australia believes the Australian Government should ratify the Kyoto Protocol."</ref>

 

 

<ref name="rosenthal">{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/03/science/earth/03climate.html?ex=1328158800&en=61f42312221df544&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss%3Cbr%20/%3E |title=Science Panel Calls Global Warming ‘Unequivocal’ |newspaper=New York Times |first=Elisabeth |last=Rosenthal |first2= Andrew C. |last2=Revkin |date=2007-02-03 |quote=the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950 |accessdate=2010-08-28}}</ref>

<!--ref name="stateclimate15">[http://www.stateclimate.org/publications/files/aascclimatepolicy.pdf Policy Statement on Climate Variability and Change] by the American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)</ref-->

 

 

<ref name="Warming 'very likely' human-made">{{cite news |title=Warming 'very likely' human-made |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6321351.stm |work=[[BBC News]] |publisher=BBC |date=2007-02-01 |accessdate=2007-02-01 }}</ref>

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{{Pemanasan global}}