Varian SARS-CoV-2: Perbedaan antara revisi

▲| {{risiko|level=tinggi|align=ml|{{estimasi|+50|20|90|50|unit=%|type=cri|mini=auto}}<wbr />{{efn-ua|name=low-confidence|[[Selang kepercayaan]] (''confidence interval'') dan selang kepercayaan Bayes (''credible interval'') yang dilaporkan memiliki probabilitas yang rendah sehingga nilai estimasi hanya dapat dipahami sebagai mungkin dan bukan sering ataupun pasti.}}{{efn-ua|Maret 2020 s.d. Februari 2021, Manaus.<ref name="cadde-p1">{{cite journal |vauthors=Faria NR, Mellan TA, Whittaker C, Claro IM, Candido DD, Mishra S, Crispim MA, Sales FC, Hawryluk I, McCrone JT, Hulswit RJ, Franco LA, Ramundo MS, de Jesus JG, Andrade PS, Coletti TM, Ferreira GM, Silva CA, Manuli ER, Pereira RH, Peixoto PS, Kraemer MU, Gaburo N, Camilo CD, Hoeltgebaum H, Souza WM, Rocha EC, de Souza LM, de Pinho MC, Araujo LJ, Malta FS, de Lima AB, Silva JD, Zauli DA, Ferreira AC, Schnekenberg RP, Laydon DJ, Walker PG, Schlüter HM, Dos Santos AL, Vidal MS, Del Caro VS, Filho RM, Dos Santos HM, Aguiar RS, Proença-Modena JL, Nelson B, Hay JA, Monod M, Miscouridou X, Coupland H, Sonabend R, Vollmer M, Gandy A, Prete CA, Nascimento VH, Suchard MA, Bowden TA, Pond SL, Wu CH, Ratmann O, Ferguson NM, Dye C, Loman NJ, Lemey P, Rambaut A, Fraiji NA, Carvalho MD, Pybus OG, Flaxman S, Bhatt S, Sabino EC |display-authors=6 |date=Mei 2021 |title=Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil |journal=Science |volume=372 |issue=6544 |pp=815–821 |bibcode=2021Sci...372..815F |doi=10.1126/science.abh2644 |doi-access=free |quote=Within this plausible region of parameter space, P.1 can be between 1.7 and 2.4 times more transmissible (50% BCI, 2.0 median, with a 99% posterior probability of being >1) than local non-P1 lineages and can evade 21 to 46% (50% BCI, 32% median, with a 95% posterior probability of being able to evade at least 10%) of protective immunity elicited by previous infection with non-P.1 lineages, corresponding to 54 to 79% (50% BCI, 68% median) cross-immunity ... We estimate that infections are 1.2 to 1.9 times more likely (50% BCI, median 1.5, 90% posterior probability of being >1) to result in mortality in the period after the emergence of P.1, compared with before, although posterior estimates of this relative risk are also correlated with inferred cross-immunity. More broadly, the recent epidemic in Manaus has strained the city's health care system, leading to inadequate access to medical care. We therefore cannot determine whether the estimated increase in relative mortality risk is due to P.1 infection, stresses on the Manaus health care system, or both. Detailed clinical investigations of P.1 infections are needed.}}</ref> Hasil pendahuluan dari sebuah penelitian di bagian selatan Brasil menemukan bahwa garis keturunan P.1 meningkatkan mortalitas terlebih pada orang muda yang sehat. Dalam kelompok tanpa penyakit bawaan sebelumnya, varian ini ditemukan dapat meningkatkan mortalitas sampai {{estimasi|490|220|985|unit=%|mini=auto}} untuk laki-laki kelompok usia 20–39, {{estimasi|465|190|1003|unit=%|mini=auto}} untuk perempuan kelompok usia 20–39, dan {{estimasi|670|401|1083|unit=%|mini=auto}} untuk perempuan kelompok usia 40–59.<ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Freitas AR, Lemos DR, Beckedorff OA, Cavalcanti LP, Siqueira AM, Mello RC, Barros EN |display-authors=6 |date=19 April 2021 |title=The increase in the risk of severity and fatality rate of covid-19 in southern Brazil after the emergence of the Variant of Concern (VOC) SARS-CoV-2 P.1 was greater among young adults without pre-existing risk conditions |work=[[medRxiv]] |type=Preprint |s2cid=233295278 |doi=10.1101/2021.04.13.21255281 |url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.13.21255281v1 |access-date=23 Mei 2021 |quote=Female 20 to 39 years old, with no pre-existing risk conditions, were at risk of death 5.65 times higher in February (95% CI, 2.9-11.03; p < 0.0001) and in the age group of 40 and 59 years old, this risk was 7.7 times higher (95% CI, 5.01-11.83; p < 0.0001) comparing with November–December. ... The heterogeneity observed between the age groups was greater when we analysed the subgroup of the population without preexisting risk conditions where we found that the CFR in the female sex in the second wave was 1.95 times (95% CI, 1.38-2.76) the CFR of the first wave in the population over 85 years old and was 7.7 times (95% CI, 5.01-11.83; p < 0.0001) in the population between 40 and 59 years old. In the male population without previous diseases, the CFR in the second wave was 2.18 (95% CI, 1.62-2.93) times the CFR of the first wave in the population over 85 years old and 5.9 (95% CI, 3.2-10.85; p < 0, 0001) higher in the range between 20 and 39 years old.}}</ref>{{efn-ua|name=different-conditions}}}}}}