Pemilihan umum Presiden Amerika Serikat 2016: Perbedaan antara revisi

Konten dihapus Konten ditambahkan
swing state
Baris 179:
 
Di antara negara bagian Republik, sasaran potensial bagi Demokrat antara lain [[Distrik kongresional kedua Nebraska]], Georgia, dan Arizona.<ref name="DBalz">{{cite news |last1 = Balz |first1 = Dan |title = The Republican Party's uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016 elections |url = http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-gops-uphill-path-to-270-in-2016/2014/01/18/9404eb06-7fcf-11e3-93c1-0e888170b723_story.html |accessdate = October 3, 2014 |work = [[The Washington Post]] |date = January 18, 2014 }}</ref> Dari hasil jajak pendapat menunjukkan Trump tidak mendapat banyak suara di negara yang umumnya memilih Republik seperti Utah. Hal tersebut menjadi pertana negara bagian tersebut akan memilih Clinton.<ref name="lvilla1">{{cite news|last1=Villa|first1=Lissandra|title=Why Utah Doesn’t Like Donald Trump|url=http://time.com/4397192/donald-trump-utah-gary-johnson/|accessdate=July 18, 2016|publisher=Time|date=July 10, 2016}}</ref> Banyak analis yang berpendapat bahwa Utah tidak menjadi pilihan utama Demokrat.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228|title=Hillary Clinton’s path to victory|access-date=August 3, 2016}}</ref><ref name="sabato2015predictions">{{cite news|url=http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554|title=The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict|date=May 3, 2015|publisher=Politico|last2=Skelley|first2=Geoffrey|last3=Sabato|first3=Larry|last1=Kondik|first1=Kyle|accessdate=September 22, 2015}}</ref> Namun hasil jajak pendapat terbaru menunjukkan suara untuk[[Evan McMullin]] meningkat dan turunnya suara Trump<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/12/a-new-poll-shows-a-tie-in-utah-be-skeptical-be-amazed/|title=A new poll shows a tie in Utah. Be skeptical. Be amazed.|publisher=}}</ref> setelah adanya skandal video [[Access Hollywood]].
 
Sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the probability either of the two main parties wins each state. "Tossup" is generally used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party is heavily favored. Ratings from the ''[[The Cook Political Report|Cook Political Report]]'', ''[[Sabato's Crystal Ball]]'', or the ''Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Report'' are included in the table below. The state's 2014 [[Cook PVI]] and the latest swing for each state are also listed.
 
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center"
<!-- Colors:
style="background:#f33" | {{sort|104|Safe R}}
style="background:#f66" | {{sort|103|Likely R}}
style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
style="background:#fcc" | {{sort|101|Tilt R}}
{{sort|100|Tossup}}
style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|Tilt D}}
style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
style="background:#66f" | {{sort|097|Likely D}}
style="background:#33f" | {{sort|096|Safe D}}
-->
 
|- style="vertical-align:bottom;"
! State
! [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral<br />votes]]
! [[United States presidential election, 2012|2012<br />margin]]
! [[Cook Partisan Voting Index|Cook PVI]]
! [[Cook Political Report|Cook]]<br /><small>Nov. 7<br />2016<ref>{{cite web |url=http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard |title=2016 Electoral Vote Scorecard |editor=Charles E. Cook, Jr |publisher=Cook Political Report | website=cookpolitical.com |date=November 7, 2016 |accessdate=November 7, 2016}}</ref></small>
! [[Real Clear Politics|RCP]]<br /><small>Nov. 4<br />2016<ref name="rcp.com">{{cite web | url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html | title=2016 Battle for White House | website=realclearpolitics.com | publisher=RealClear Media Group | date=November 4, 2016 | accessdate=November 4, 2016}}</ref></small>
! [[Stuart Rothenberg|Roth.]]<br /><small>Nov. 7<br /> 2016<ref>{{cite web | title=Presidential Ratings | url=http://rothenberggonzales.com/ratings/president | website=rothenberggonzales.com | publisher=The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report | date=November 7, 2016 | accessdate=November 7, 2016}}</ref></small>
! [[Sabato's Crystal Ball|Sabato]]<br /><small>Nov. 7<br />2016<ref>{{cite web | title=The Crystal Ball’s 2016 Electoral College ratings | url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/ | publisher=University of Virginia Center for Politics | website=www.centerforpolitics.org | date=November 7, 2016 | accessdate=November 7, 2016}}</ref></small>
! [[List of United States presidential election results by state|Last<br />swing]]
 
|-
! [[Arizona]]
| 11
| style="background:#f33" | {{sort|109.1|9.1 R}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#f33" | {{sort|107|R+7}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#fcc" | {{sort|101|Tilt R}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
| 2000
 
|-
! [[Colorado]]
| 9
| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|094.64|5.4 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|D+1}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#66f" | {{sort|097|Likely D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#66f" | {{sort|097|Likely D}}
| 2008
 
|-
! [[Florida]]
| 29
| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099.1|0.9 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#fcc" | {{sort|102|R+2}}
<!--Coo-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|Tilt D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
| 2008
 
|-
! [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]]
| 16
| style="background:#f66" | {{sort|107.8|7.8 R}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#f66" | {{sort|106|R+6}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#f66" | {{sort|103|Likely R}}
| 1996
 
|-
! [[Iowa]]
| 6
| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|094.2|5.8 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|D+1}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#fcc" | {{sort|101|Tilt R}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
| 2008
 
|-
! [[Maine's 2nd congressional district|Maine CD-2]]
| 1
| style="background:#66f" | {{sort|091.4|8.6 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|098|D+2}}
<!--Coo-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#999" | No rating{{efn|Statewide Maine race rated as Likely D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
| 1992
 
|-
! [[Michigan]]
| 16
| style="background:#33f" | {{sort|090.5|9.5 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|096|D+4}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
| 1992
 
|-
! [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district|Nebraska CD-2]]
| 1
| style="background:#f66" | {{sort|107.2|7.2 R}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|104|R+4}}
<!--Coo-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--RCP-->| style="background:#f66" | {{sort|103|Likely R}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#999" | No rating{{efn|Statewide Nebraska race rated as Likely R}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
| 2012
 
|-
! [[Nevada]]
| 6
| style="background:#66f" | {{sort|093.3|6.7 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|098|D+2}}
<!--Coo-->|style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|Tilt D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
| 2008
 
|-
! [[New Hampshire]]
| 4
| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|094.4|5.6 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|D+1}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
| 2004
 
|-
! [[North Carolina]]
| 15
| style="background:#fcc" | {{sort|102|2.0 R}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|103|R+3}}
<!--Coo-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|Tilt D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
| 2012
 
|-
! [[Ohio]]
| 18
| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|097|3.0 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#fcc" | {{sort|101|R+1}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#f99" | {{sort|102|Lean R}}
| 2008
 
|-
! [[Pennsylvania]]
| 20
| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|094.62|5.4 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|D+1}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--RCP-->| {{sort|100|Tossup}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
| 1992
 
|-
! [[Wisconsin]]
| 10
| style="background:#66f" | {{sort|093.1|6.9 D}}
<!--CPVI-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|098|D+2}}
<!--Coo-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--RCP-->| style="background:#99f" | {{sort|098|Lean D}}
<!--Rot-->| style="background:#ccf" | {{sort|099|Tilt D}}
<!--Sab-->| style="background:#66f" | {{sort|097|Likely D}}
| 1988
|}
 
{{notelist}}
 
== Referensi ==