Teori puncak Hubbert
Puncak teori Hubbert, juga dikenal dengan puncak minyak adalah sebuah teori berpengaruh mengenai pengambilan dan penghabisan jangka-panjang dari minyak bumi konvensional (dan bahan bakar fosil lainnya).Teori ini dinamakan atas seorang geofisikawan Amerika M. King Hubbert, yang menciptakan sebuah model dari persediaan yang diketahui, dan mengusulkan sebuah teori. Pada 1956, Hubbert mempresentasikan sebuah paper pada rapat American Petroleum Institute di mana ia memperkirakan produksi minyak di Amerika Serikat akan memuncak pada 1965 dan 1970. Dan produksi minyak Amerika memang memuncak pada 1971, dan telah berkurang sejak saat itu.
Hubbert mengusulkan bahwa penghitungan yang sama dapat diterapkan ke keadaan lainnya, seperti puncak produksi minya dunia. Beberapa perkiraan untuk puncak produksi dunia telah dibuat oleh Hubbert dan lainnya, dengan beberapa tanggal tersebut sudah lewat di masa lampau. Hal ini telah menimbulkan kritikan dari metode tersebut dan perkiraan yang dibuat dengan menggunakan metode tersebut.
Teori puncak Hubbert merupakan subjek dari diskusi yang berkelanjutan karena efek potensial dari produksi minyak yang rendah, dan karena debat yang terlur berlanjut dari aspek kebijakan energi.
Lihat juga
Referensi
- "Feature on United States oil production." (November, 2002) ASPO Newsletter #23.
- Bentley, R.W. (2002). Global oil & gas depletion: an overview. Energy Policy 30, 189–205
- Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050 ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, Octobe
- Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions (August 30, 2004). Middle East Economic Survey VOL. XLVII No 35
- Hubbert, M. King. (1956) Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956.
- Maugeri, Leonardo (2004). Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over. Science 304, 1114-1115
Bacaan lebih lanjut dan diskusi
- Michael Ruppert, Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil, New Society Publishers, 2004, ISBN 0865715408
- M. King Hubbert, "Energy from Fossil Fuels", Science, vol. 109, pp. 103-109, February 4, 1949
- Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press, 2003, ISBN 0691116253
- Colin J. Campbell, The Coming Oil Crisis, Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd., 2004, ISBN 0906522110
- Richard Heinberg, The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, New Society Publishers, 2003, ISBN 0865714827
- David Goodstein, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, W.W. Norton & Company, 2004, ISBN 0393058573
- Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb, The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future, Warner Books, 2004, ISBN 0446533173
- Amory B. Lovins, E. Kyle Datta, Odd-Even Bustnes, Jonathan G. Koomey, Nathan J. Glasgow, Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2004, ISBN 1881071103
- Jeremy Rifkin, The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-Cell-Driven Global Hydrogen Web, Blackwell Publishers, 2002, ISBN 0745630421
- Paul Roberts, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, Houghton Mifflin, 2004, ISBN 0618239774
- Paul Roberts, Last Stop Gas, Harper's Magazine, August 2004, pp. 71-72
- Documentary film The End of Suburbia
- Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum.
- Howard James Kunstler The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005, ISBN 0871138883
- Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Wiley, 2005, ISBN 047173876X
Pranala luar
- Peak Oil NZ
- Peak Oil News
- Peak Oil in the News: CNN, MSNBC, AP, New York Times, Washington Post, etc.
- Peak Oil Wiki
- Big Picture TV Free video clip of petroleum geologist Colin Campbell discussing peak oil
- Energy Bulletin - Peak oil related news stories
- Peak oil forum
- Dwindling Supply vs. Abundant Oil: A Timely Debate - General Session of the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2004
- The Bioregional Revolution - Peak oil organization promoting bioregionalism
- New Peak Oil Website - online videos, articles and statistics.
- Peak Oil reading list - Books, articles, web sites and more
- Energy news and views
- Dry Dipstick - A Peak Oil metadirectory
- Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), founded by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- The Bioregional Revolution -Organization promoting sustainability and bioregionalism in response to peak oil.
Advokasi teori Hubbert dan riset
- ASPO, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
- ASPO Ireland Dr Colin Campbell's Office
- ODAC, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre independent, UK education charity
- Peak Oil NZ
- PowerSwitch.org.uk - Raising awareness of Britain's Energy Future
- Chevron's Peak Oil Website
- PeakOilAction people working together to raise awareness of oil depletion, prepare for post petroleum age
- International Peak Oil Awareness Meetup meet others in your area on 2nd Wednesday of month
- Peak oil and Technocracy
- Oilcrash.com
- Hubbert Peak of Oil Production
- Energy Crisis/Shortage, English, German
- Culture Change, promotes lifestyle change as a reponse to the Hubbert peak
- Ecological Basis for Great Change
- Life After The Oil Crash
- Wolf at the Door
- Die Off
- Planet for Life
- From the Wilderness
- Before The Wells Run Dry - Analysis about the oil situation from Feasta.org, an Irish website
- Facts on the inevitable world-wide energy transition.
- biography of Dr Hubbert,
- Post Carbon Institute
- The End of Suburbia
- Global Public Media
- Global Public Media: Video & Sound interviews
- Sign the Oil Peak and Decline Declaration!
- M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies
- OilEmpire.US: 9/11 and Peak Oil
- Evaluating Peak Oil scenarios - will we use the remaining oil for solar panels or fighter planes?
- Permatopia.com - a graceful end to cheap oil
- Alt-E - Virtual watering hole for Alaskans groping their way into a future characterized by increasing high-quality primary-energy-source scarcity, i.e., a "bottleneck" future.
- Peak Oil Aware Shop - Strong, clear graphics to raise awareness of peak oil, printed t-shirts, stickers, buttons etc
- Peak Oil Aware Graphics - Stong, clear graphics to raise awareness of peak oil, free for download for non-commercial use.
- Links to 50 Recent News Articles on Peak Oil
Laporan/essays/lectures
- The unsustainability of full employment and cheap energy
- UK Survival in the 21st Century
- Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologi-radet)
- M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth
- Peakoil conference 19-20 October 2004
- graph showing oil production in lower 48 US states following Hubbert's predictions
- Peak Oil presentation by Dr. Campbell, TU Clausthal
- Rep. Prof. Roscoe Bartlett's hour long Peak Oil presentation to (an empty) U.S. House of Representatives
- An Introduction to Peak Oil by Jim Bliss
- Oil: Burnt Out? theWatt.com article
Artikel
- "The End of Cheap Oil", Colin Campbell & Jean Laherrère on Peak Oil Scientific American article
- Is the world's oil running out fast? BBC news article
- Oil: Is the end at hand? CNN article
- The end of oil is closer than you think The Guardian article
- The End of Oil? MIT Technology Review article
- David Goodstein on Peak Oil MSNBC news article
- How long will the world's oil last? MSNBC news article
- The End of Cheap Oil National Geographic article
- Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America? Common Dreams NewsCenter article
- Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil "261 billion barrels in reserve..."
Forum/Blog/halaman diskusi
- Peak Oil News Blog
- Peak Energy Blog (bg)
- mobjectivist Blog
- Resource Insights Blog
- Peak Energy Blog (mg)
- James Howard Kunstler
- Yahoo Group: Running on Empty
- The Oil Drum
- Ontic - PowerLess NZ
- Peakoil.com.
- Peak Oil Optimist
- How much peak-oil is being talked about
- Flavor8: Energy Crisis News
- The Energy Blog
- Alternate Energy Blogspot.
- theWatt Energy News and Discussion
- ACT Peak Oil Discussion Group
Kritikan teori Hubbert
- Pemex's oil estimates double: Mexican Oil company's estimate of reserves doubled.
- Peak Oil -- NOT! - Directory page addresses the theory in circulation that oil is not solely of organic origin, but that there may be another, inexhaustible mode of origin from deeper in the crust, involving magma.
- Will We Run Out of Energy? by Mark Brandly
- Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil "261 billion barrels in reserve..."
- Why Peak Oil will be a non-event.
- The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)
- The end of the age of oil?
- Known Saudi Arabian Oil Reserves Tripled
- Peak production in the news again
- International Energy Agency press release
- Oil shale back in the picture
- Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum.
- Sustainable Oil? (5-25-04 WorldNet Daily)
- More Evidence for Sustainable Oil (7-10-04 rense.com)
- Abiogenic Gas Debate 11:2002 (EXPLORER)
- Unconventional Ideas About Unconventional Gas (Society of Petroleum Engineers)
- Oil recovery technology, Nexial Institute (NEXIT), Dr. James H. L. Lawler Integrated system promising virtual total recovery, in excess of 95%
- Texas Research Institute Promises a Way Out of the Energy Crisis
- Peak Oil Debunked
- Lee Raymond of Exxon Mobile believes oil supplies will rise