Thomas Malthus: Perbedaan antara revisi
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{{Infobox_Person|
name = Thomas
image = Thomas Robert Malthus.jpg |
caption = Thomas Robert Malthus (Thomas Malthus) |
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Pdt. '''Thomas Robert Malthus''', [[Royal Society|FRS]] ({{lahirmati|[[Surrey]], [[Inggris]]|13|2|1766|[[Haileybury]], [[Hertford]], [[Inggris]]|29|12|1834}}), yang biasanya dikenal sebagai '''Thomas Malthus''', meskipun ia lebih suka dipanggil "Robert Malthus", adalah seorang pakar [[demografi]] [[Inggris]] dan [[ekonomi politik|ekonom
== Kehidupan ==
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Previously, high fertility had been considered an economic plus since it increased the number of workers available to the economy. Malthus, however, looked at fertility from a new perspective and convinced most economists that even though high fertility might increase the gross output it tended to reduce output per capita. Malthus has been widely admired by, and has influenced, a number of other notable [[economists]] such as [[David Ricardo]] (whom Malthus knew personally) and [[Alfred Marshall]].
A distinguished early convert was [[British Prime Minister]], [[William Pitt The Younger]]. In the 1830s Malthus' writings strongly influenced [[British Whig Party|Whig]] reforms which overturned [[Tory]] paternalism and brought in the [[Poor Law|Poor Law Amendment Act]] of 1834.
Concerns about Malthus's theory also helped promote the idea of a national population [[Census]] in the UK. Government official [[John Rickman]] was instrumental in the first modern [[Census]] being conducted in [[1801]].
Malthus was proud to include amongst the earliest converts to his population theory the leading [[creationist]] and [[natural theologian]], Archdeacon [[William Paley]] whose ''Natural Theology'' was first published in 1802. Both men regarded Malthus' Principle of Population as additional [[Evidence|proof]] of the existence of a [[deity]].
Ironically, given Malthus's own opposition to [[contraception]], his work was a strong influence on [[Francis Place]] ([[1771]]–[[1854]]), whose Neo-Malthusian movement was the first to advocate contraception. Place published his ''Proofs on the Principle of Population'' in 1822.
Malthus’s idea of man’s “Struggle for existence” had decisive influence on Charles Darwin and the theory of evolution. Other scientists related this idea to plants and animals which helped to define a piece of the evolutionary puzzle. This struggle for existence of all creatures is the catalyst by which natural selection produces the “survival of the fittest”, a phrase coined by Herbert Spencer (Spiegel 282). Darwin, in his book ''[[The Origin of Species]]'', called his theory an application of the doctrines of Malthus in an area without the complicating factor of human intelligence. Darwin, a life-long admirer of Malthus, referred to Malthus as "''that great philosopher''" (Letter to J.D. Hooker 5th June, 1860) and wrote in his notebook that "''Malthus on Man should be studied''". Wallace called Malthus's essay "...''the most important book I read''..." and considered it "''the most interesting coincidence''" that both he and Darwin were independently led to the theory of evolution through reading Malthus.
Thanks to Malthus, Darwin recognised the significance of intraspecies competition between populations of the same [[species]] (eg. the lamb and the lamb), not just interspecies competition between species (eg. the lion and the lamb). Malthusian population thinking also explained how an incipient species could become a full-blown species in a very short timeframe.
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Founder of [[UNESCO]], evolutionist and [[Humanist]], [[Julian Huxley]] wrote of "The Crowded World" in his ''Evolutionary Humanism'' (1964), calling for a World Population Policy. Huxley was openly critical of [[Communist]] and [[Catholic]] attitudes to [[birth control]], [[population control]] and [[overpopulation]]. Today world organisations such as the [[United Nations Population Fund]] acknowledge that the debate over how many people the Earth can support effectively started with Malthus. Julian's brother, [[Aldous Huxley]], author of [[Brave New World]], also seems to have been influenced by Malthusian theories on population. In Brave New World, the popular form of birth control is known as the Malthusian Belt. It is mentioned frequently by the females in the novel including the female protagonist [[Lenina Crowne]].
Karl Marx's social determinism has its roots in Malthus’s theory as well. Marx however rejected Darwin’s biological determinism and instead embraced social determinism (in other words one’s decisions are made as a direct reaction to one’s circumstances). He saw social ills as caused by unjust or faulty institutions and social arrangements in large part caused by capitalism.
Malthus continues to have considerable influence to this day. One famous recent example of this is [[Paul R. Ehrlich]], author of ''[[The Population Bomb]]''. Ehrlich predicted, in the late 1960s, that hundreds of millions would die from a coming overpopulation crisis in the 1970s, and that by [[1980]] life expectancy in the [[United States]] would be only 42 years. Other famous examples are the 1972 book [[The Limits to Growth]] from the self-styled [[Club of Rome]], and the [[Global 2000]] report to the then [[President of the United States of America]]. [[Science-fiction]] author [[Isaac Asimov]] issued many appeals for population control reflecting the perspective articulated by people from Thomas Malthus through [[Paul R. Ehrlich]].
Malthus is widely regarded as the founder of modern [[demography]]. Malthus had proposed his Principle of Population as a universal [[natural law]] for all [[species]], not just [[humans]]. Instead, today, his theory is widely regarded as only an ''approximate'' natural law of [[population dynamics]] for all species. This is because it can be proven that nothing can sustain [[exponential growth]] at a constant rate indefinitely.
Nonetheless, Malthus continues to openly inspire and influence even futuristic visions, such as those of [[K Eric Drexler]] relating to [[space advocacy]] and [[molecular nanotechnology]]. As Drexler put it in [[Engines of Creation]]: "''In a sense, opening space will burst our limits to growth, since we know of no end to the universe. Nevertheless, Malthus was essentially right''."
Malthus has also inspired retired physics professor, [[Albert Bartlett]], to lecture over 1,500 times on "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy", which promotes [[sustainable living]] and explains the mathematics of [[overpopulation]].
The [[Malthusian growth model]] now bears Malthus' name. The [[logistic function]] of [[Pierre Francois Verhulst]] results in the well known [[S-curve]]. Yet the '''logistic growth model''' favoured by so many critics of the Malthusian growth model was created by Verhulst in 1838 only after reading Malthus's essay.
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===Marxist===
The highpoint of opposition to Malthus's ideas came in the middle of the nineteenth century with the writings of [[Karl Marx]] (''Capital'', 1867) and [[Friedrich Engels]] (''Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy'', 1844), who argued that what Malthus saw as the problem of the pressure of population on the means of production was actually that of the pressure of the means of production on population. They thus viewed it in terms of their concept of the labor reserve army. In other words, the seeming excess of population that Malthus attributed to the seemingly innate disposition of the poor to reproduce beyond their means was actually a product of the very dynamic of capitalist economy.
Engels called Malthus's hypothesis "...''the crudest, most barbarous theory that ever existed, a system of despair which struck down all those beautiful phrases about love thy neighbour and world citizenship''."
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===Empirical===
Recent research and significant [[empirical]] evidence have showed some of Malthus's predictions to be unrealized. For example, the population has continued to grow, yet the prices of resources and foods relative to [[wages]] has decreased{{fact}}, indicating the supply of food (and resources) has grown relative to population size. This [[paradox]] can be easily resolved because Malthus made three assumptions which are further elucidated by history after his death.
First, it is widely acknowledged that population growth is almost never exponential, but instead influenced by so many factors that no simple [[mathematical model]] can describe it. Demography since Malthus's time show that population growth rates flatten and then invert as a function of economic [[prosperity]]. Malthus lived in the time when [[England]] went through a geometric growth before birth rates in that country flattened.
Second, the growth of food production has never been restricted to the rudimentary processes Malthus described. Twentieth-century researchers have provided documentation of the process of agricultural intensification (pioneered by economist [[Ester Boserup]]) by which production can be raised in response to population increases and market demands. Production has also been expanded by societal and technological advances in [[agriculture]] such as the [[Neolithic Revolution]], [[British Agricultural Revolution]], and the [[Green Revolution]], food supply has outgrown population and is expected to continue doing so by the Food and Agriculture Organization. A review of the most recent edition of USDA Agricultural Statistics reveals that the yield of corn has grown from 113.5 to 160.5 bushels per acre between 1995 and 2004. This represents a 3.5% average annual compound rate of growth. Similar results are reported for wheat -- with growth rates varying by type of wheat. (Tables 1-3 and 1-36) However this growth has been based heavily on a finite resource, petrochemicals, and may yet prove unsustainable. This growth has also been based upon exhaustion of certain soil resources, such as creation of the barren central highland [[plateau]] of [[Madagascar]], which by definition cannot be repeated. (Some debate exists on the extent to which [[Genetically Modified Crops]] will contribute to continued agricultural growth.) However, the market economy - defined as mutually beneficial exchange between decentralized actors - is responsible{{fact}} for increases in productivity, and is internally sustainable. Likewise, Malthus clearly underestimated the power of the human capacity to increase the means of human [[subsistence]] on [[Earth]]. For example, Malthus did not fully understand the additional leeway built into the agricultural system - diets composed of different kinds of foods can have a wide range of different land-use efficiencies.
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''Supported by a calm but firm conviction of the usefulness of his labors.''
''Content with the approbation of the wise and good.''
''His writings will be a lasting monument of the extent and correctness of his understanding.''
''The spotless integrity of his principles, the equity and candour of his nature, his sweetness of temper, urbanity of manners and tenderness of heart, his benevolence and his piety are still dearer recollections of his family and friends.''
Born Feb 14 1766 Died 29 Dec 1834.
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* ''[http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/12276a.htm Theories of Overpopulation]'' - merujuk ke bagian yang berjudul ''Criticism of the Malthusian Theory''. situs Catholic Encyclopedia
* ''[http://www.unfpa.org/intercenter/food/morefood.htm More Food for More People But Not For All, and Not Forever] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051231111031/http://www.unfpa.org/intercenter/food/morefood.htm |date=2005-12-31 }}'' Situs Dana Kependudukan PBB
* ''[http://www.hti.umich.edu/cgi/p/pd-modeng/pd-modeng-idx?type=HTML&rgn=TEI.2&byte=53049319 Natural Theology; or, Evidences of the Existence and Attributes of the Deity]{{Pranala mati|date=Oktober 2022 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}'' oleh William Paley (1802). edisi ke-12 (1809) Teks diterbitkan oleh Universitas Michigan (Humanities Text Initiative)
* [[John Maddox]], ''The Doomsday Syndrome - An Assault on Pessimism'' (1972).
* [http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles_pdf/feast_of_malthus.pdf The Feast of Malthus] oleh [[Garrett Hardin]] dalam ''The Social Contract'' (1998)
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* {{en}} [http://www.econlib.org/library/Malthus/malPop.html ''An Essay on the Principle of Population,''] edisi pertama, 1798. Library of Economics and Liberty. Gratis online, teks lengkap dapat dicari.
* {{en}} [http://www.econlib.org/library/Malthus/malPlong.html ''An Essay on the Principle of Population,''] edisi ke-6, 1826. Library of Economics and Liberty. Gratis online, teks lengkap dapat dicari. Malthus menerbitkan sebuah revisi besar terhadap edisi
* {{gutenberg author|id=Thomas_Robert_Malthus|name=Thomas Robert Malthus}}
* {{en}} [http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/malthus.htm Profil Malthus dan pranala yang luas] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060207102614/http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/malthus.htm |date=2006-02-07 }}
* {{en}} [http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=706&z=58 Biografi Malthus yang terfokus untuk siswa] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060219212548/http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=706&z=58 |date=2006-02-19 }}
* {{en}} [http://www.economics.mcmaster.ca/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/index.html Kopi online dari beberapa karya Malthus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050409152713/http://www.economics.mcmaster.ca/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/index.html |date=2005-04-09 }}
* {{en}} [http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/malbib.htm Bibliografi Malthus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160817225316/http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/malbib.htm |date=2016-08-17 }}
* {{en}} [http://homepages.caverock.net.nz/~kh/bobperson.html Bibliografi Malthus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130518105508/http://homepages.caverock.net.nz/~kh/bobperson.html |date=2013-05-18 }} oleh Nigel Malthus, seorang keturunan Malthus dari saudara lelakinya, Sydenham Malthus
* {{en}} [http://desip.igc.org/malthus The International Society of Malthus]
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