Thomas Malthus: Perbedaan antara revisi
Konten dihapus Konten ditambahkan
Luckas-bot (bicara | kontrib) k bot Menambah: tl:Thomas Malthus |
Tidak ada ringkasan suntingan Tag: Suntingan perangkat seluler Suntingan peramban seluler |
||
| (39 revisi perantara oleh 24 pengguna tidak ditampilkan) | |||
Baris 1:
{{terjemah|Inggris}}
{{Infobox_Person|
name = Thomas
date_of_birth = Februari, [[1766]] |
place_of_birth = [[Surrey]], [[Inggris]] |
Baris 10:
}}
Pdt. '''Thomas Robert Malthus''', [[Royal Society|FRS]] ({{lahirmati|[[Surrey]], [[Inggris]]|13|2|1766|[[Haileybury]], [[Hertford]], [[Inggris]]|
== Kehidupan ==
Malthus dilahirkan dalam sebuah keluarga yang kaya. Ayahnya, Daniel, adalah sahabat pribadi filsuf dan skeptik [[David Hume]] dan kenalan dari [[Jean-Jacques Rousseau]]. Malthus muda dididik di rumah hingga ia diterima di [[Jesus College, Cambridge]] pada [[1784]]. Di sana ia belajar banyak pokok pelajaran dan memperoleh penghargaan dalam deklamasi Inggris, [[bahasa Latin]] dan [[bahasa Yunani|Yunani]]. Mata pelajaran utamanya adalah [[matematika]]. Ia memperoleh gelar magister pada [[1791]] dan terpilih menjadi ''fellow'' dari Jesus College dua tahun kemudian. Pada [[1797]], ia ditahbiskan dan menjadi pendeta [[Anglikan]] di desa.
Malthus menikah pada [[1804]]; ia dan istrinya mempunyai tiga orang anak. Pada [[1805]] ia menjadi profesor Britania pertama dalam bidang ekonomi politik di [[East India Company College]] di [[Haileybury]] di [[Hertfordshire]]. Siswa-siswanya menyapanya dengan sebutan kesayangan "Pop" (yang dapat berarti "papa") "Populasi" Malthus. Pada [[1818]], ia terpilih menjadi ''Fellow'' dari Perhimpunan Kerajaan.
Malthus menolak dibuat fotonya hingga tahun 1833 karena ia merasa malu karena [[sumbing]]. Masalah ini kemudian diperbaiki lewat operasi, dan Malthus dianggap sangat tampan. Sumbingnya juga meluas hingga ke dalam mulutnya yang
Malthus dikebumikan di [[Bath Abbey]] di [[Inggris]].
== Prinsip kependudukan ==
[[Berkas:Malthus - Essay on the principle of population, 1826 - 5884843.tif |jmpl|''Essay on the principle of population'', 1826]]
Pandangan-pandangan Malthus umumnya dikembangkan sebagai reaksi terhadap pandangan-pandangan yang optimistik dari ayahnya dan rekan-rekannya, terutama Rousseau. Esai Malthus juga dibuat sebagai tanggapan terhadap pandangan-pandangan [[Marquis de Condorcet]]. Dalam ''[[An Essay on the Principle of Population]]'' (Sebuah Esai tentang Prinsip mengenai Kependudukan), yang pertama kali diterbitkan pada [[1798]], Malthus membuat ramalan yang terkenal bahwa jumlah [[populasi]] akan mengalahkan pasokan [[makanan]], yang menyebabkan berkurangnya jumlah makanan per orang. (Case & Fair, 1999: 790). Ia bahkan meramalkan secara spesifik bahwa hal ini pasti akan terjadi pada pertengahan abad ke-19, sebuah ramalan yang gagal karena beberapa alasan, termasuk penggunaan [[analisis statis]]nya, yang memperhitungkan kecenderungan-kecenderungan mutakhir dan memproyeksikannya secara tidak terbatas ke masa depan, yang hampir selalu gagal untuk sistem yang kompleks.
<!--
The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction; and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague, advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.
Baris 60 ⟶ 61:
Previously, high fertility had been considered an economic plus since it increased the number of workers available to the economy. Malthus, however, looked at fertility from a new perspective and convinced most economists that even though high fertility might increase the gross output it tended to reduce output per capita. Malthus has been widely admired by, and has influenced, a number of other notable [[economists]] such as [[David Ricardo]] (whom Malthus knew personally) and [[Alfred Marshall]].
A distinguished early convert was [[British Prime Minister]], [[William Pitt The Younger]]. In the 1830s Malthus' writings strongly influenced [[British Whig Party|Whig]] reforms which overturned [[Tory]] paternalism and brought in the [[Poor Law|Poor Law Amendment Act]] of 1834.
Concerns about Malthus's theory also helped promote the idea of a national population [[Census]] in the UK. Government official [[John Rickman]] was instrumental in the first modern [[Census]] being conducted in [[1801]].
Malthus was proud to include amongst the earliest converts to his population theory the leading [[creationist]] and [[natural theologian]], Archdeacon [[William Paley]] whose ''Natural Theology'' was first published in 1802. Both men regarded Malthus' Principle of Population as additional [[Evidence|proof]] of the existence of a [[deity]].
Ironically, given Malthus's own opposition to [[contraception]], his work was a strong influence on [[Francis Place]] ([[1771]]–[[1854]]), whose Neo-Malthusian movement was the first to advocate contraception. Place published his ''Proofs on the Principle of Population'' in 1822.
Malthus’s idea of man’s “Struggle for existence” had decisive influence on Charles Darwin and the theory of evolution. Other scientists related this idea to plants and animals which helped to define a piece of the evolutionary puzzle. This struggle for existence of all creatures is the catalyst by which natural selection produces the “survival of the fittest”, a phrase coined by Herbert Spencer (Spiegel 282). Darwin, in his book ''[[The Origin of Species]]'', called his theory an application of the doctrines of Malthus in an area without the complicating factor of human intelligence. Darwin, a life-long admirer of Malthus, referred to Malthus as "''that great philosopher''" (Letter to J.D. Hooker 5th June, 1860) and wrote in his notebook that "''Malthus on Man should be studied''". Wallace called Malthus's essay "...''the most important book I read''..." and considered it "''the most interesting coincidence''" that both he and Darwin were independently led to the theory of evolution through reading Malthus.
Thanks to Malthus, Darwin recognised the significance of intraspecies competition between populations of the same [[species]] (eg. the lamb and the lamb), not just interspecies competition between species (eg. the lion and the lamb). Malthusian population thinking also explained how an incipient species could become a full-blown species in a very short timeframe.
Baris 74 ⟶ 75:
The significance of Malthus's influence on Darwin was perhaps best highlighted by Robert M. Young (''Darwin's Metaphor: Nature's Place in Victorian Culture'', 1965), Professor of Psychotherapy and Psychoanalytic Studies at Sheffield University, England.
Founder of [[UNESCO]], evolutionist and [[Humanist]], [[Julian Huxley]] wrote of "The Crowded World" in his ''Evolutionary Humanism'' (1964), calling for a World Population Policy. Huxley was openly critical of [[Communist]] and [[Catholic]] attitudes to [[birth control]]
Karl Marx's social determinism has its roots in Malthus’s theory as well. Marx however rejected Darwin’s biological determinism and instead embraced social determinism (in other words one’s decisions are made as a direct reaction to one’s circumstances). He saw social ills as caused by unjust or faulty institutions and social arrangements in large part caused by capitalism.
Malthus continues to have considerable influence to this day. One famous recent example of this is [[Paul R. Ehrlich]], author of ''[[The Population Bomb]]''. Ehrlich predicted, in the late 1960s, that hundreds of millions would die from a coming overpopulation crisis in the 1970s, and that by [[1980]] life expectancy in the [[United States]] would be only 42 years. Other famous examples are the 1972 book [[The Limits to Growth]] from the self-styled [[Club of Rome]], and the [[Global 2000]] report to the then [[President of the United States of America]]. [[Science-fiction]] author [[Isaac Asimov]] issued many appeals for population control reflecting the perspective articulated by people from Thomas Malthus through [[Paul R. Ehrlich]].
Malthus is widely regarded as the founder of modern [[demography]]. Malthus had proposed his Principle of Population as a universal [[natural law]] for all [[species]], not just [[humans]]. Instead, today, his theory is widely regarded as only an ''approximate'' natural law of [[population dynamics]] for all species. This is because it can be proven that nothing can sustain [[exponential growth]] at a constant rate indefinitely.
Nonetheless, Malthus continues to openly inspire and influence even futuristic visions, such as those of [[K Eric Drexler]] relating to [[space advocacy]] and [[molecular nanotechnology]]. As Drexler put it in [[Engines of Creation]]: "''In a sense, opening space will burst our limits to growth, since we know of no end to the universe. Nevertheless, Malthus was essentially right''."
Malthus has also inspired retired physics professor, [[Albert Bartlett]], to lecture over 1,500 times on "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy", which promotes [[sustainable living]] and explains the mathematics of [[overpopulation]].
The [[Malthusian growth model]] now bears Malthus' name. The [[logistic function]] of [[Pierre Francois Verhulst]] results in the well known [[S-curve]]. Yet the '''logistic growth model''' favoured by so many critics of the Malthusian growth model was created by Verhulst in 1838 only after reading Malthus's essay.
Baris 96 ⟶ 97:
[[William Godwin]] responded to Malthus's criticisms of his own arguments with ''On Population'' (1820).
Other theoretical and political critiques of Malthus and Malthusian thinking emerged soon after the publication of the first Essay on Population, most notably in the work of the reformist industrialist [[Robert Owen]]
===Marxist===
The highpoint of opposition to Malthus's ideas came in the middle of the nineteenth century with the writings of [[Karl Marx]] (''Capital'', 1867) and [[Friedrich Engels]] (''Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy'', 1844), who argued that what Malthus saw as the problem of the pressure of population on the means of production was actually that of the pressure of the means of production on population. They thus viewed it in terms of their concept of the labor reserve army. In other words, the seeming excess of population that Malthus attributed to the seemingly innate disposition of the poor to reproduce beyond their means was actually a product of the very dynamic of capitalist economy.
Engels called Malthus's hypothesis "...''the crudest, most barbarous theory that ever existed, a system of despair which struck down all those beautiful phrases about love thy neighbour and world citizenship''."
Baris 115 ⟶ 116:
===Empirical===
Recent research and significant [[empirical]] evidence have showed some of Malthus's predictions to be unrealized. For example, the population has continued to grow, yet the prices of resources and foods relative to [[wages]] has decreased{{fact}}, indicating the supply of food (and resources) has grown relative to population size. This [[paradox]] can be easily resolved because Malthus made three assumptions which are further elucidated by history after his death.
First, it is widely acknowledged that population growth is almost never exponential, but instead influenced by so many factors that no simple [[mathematical model]] can describe it. Demography since Malthus's time show that population growth rates flatten and then invert as a function of economic [[prosperity]]. Malthus lived in the time when [[England]] went through a geometric growth before birth rates in that country flattened.
Second, the growth of food production has never been restricted to the rudimentary processes Malthus described. Twentieth-century researchers have provided documentation of the process of agricultural intensification (pioneered by economist [[Ester Boserup]]) by which production can be raised in response to population increases and market demands. Production has also been expanded by societal and technological advances in [[agriculture]] such as the [[Neolithic Revolution]], [[British Agricultural Revolution]], and the [[Green Revolution]], food supply has outgrown population and is expected to continue doing so by the Food and Agriculture Organization. A review of the most recent edition of USDA Agricultural Statistics reveals that the yield of corn has grown from 113.5 to 160.5 bushels per acre between 1995 and 2004. This represents a 3.5% average annual compound rate of growth. Similar results are reported for wheat -- with growth rates varying by type of wheat. (Tables 1-3 and 1-36) However this growth has been based heavily on a finite resource, petrochemicals, and may yet prove unsustainable. This growth has also been based upon exhaustion of certain soil resources, such as creation of the barren central highland [[plateau]] of [[Madagascar]], which by definition cannot be repeated. (Some debate exists on the extent to which [[Genetically Modified Crops]] will contribute to continued agricultural growth.) However, the market economy - defined as mutually beneficial exchange between decentralized actors - is responsible{{fact}} for increases in productivity, and is internally sustainable. Likewise, Malthus clearly underestimated the power of the human capacity to increase the means of human [[subsistence]] on [[Earth]]. For example, Malthus did not fully understand the additional leeway built into the agricultural system - diets composed of different kinds of foods can have a wide range of different land-use efficiencies.
Baris 130 ⟶ 131:
''Supported by a calm but firm conviction of the usefulness of his labors.''
''Content with the approbation of the wise and good.''
''His writings will be a lasting monument of the extent and correctness of his understanding.''
''The spotless integrity of his principles, the equity and candour of his nature, his sweetness of temper, urbanity of manners and tenderness of heart, his benevolence and his piety are still dearer recollections of his family and friends.''
Born Feb 14 1766 Died 29 Dec 1834.
-->
== Informasi lain ==
*
* [[Food Race]] sebuah gagasan terkait dari [[Daniel Quinn]]
* [[Batas pertumbuhan]] dari [[Klub Roma]]
Baris 146 ⟶ 149:
* [[Daftar negara menurut tingkat kematian]]
* [[Daftar epidemi]]
* [[Daftar bala kelaparan]]
* [[Daftar peperangan]]
* [[Katastrofe Malthus|Katastrofi Malthus]]
* [[Model pertumbuhan Malthus]]
* [[Malthusianisme]]
* [[Darwinisme sosial]] - ide yang terkait
* [[Giovanni Botero]] - pemikir abad ke-16 yang karyanya membayang-bayangi gagasan Malthus tentang bencana kependudukan
* [[Urinetown]], '''Urinetown, the Musical'''. Baris terakhir dari pertunjukan musik Broadway yang memperoleh Penghargaan Tony 2001 adalah: "Hail Malthus!" Pertunjukan musik ini mengisahkan cerita tentang suatu masyarakat yang tidak dapat mendukung dirinya sendiri karena kekurangan air yang disebabkan konsumsi yang berlebih. Akibatnya, penduduk harus dibayar untuk kencing.
== Bacaan lebih lanjut ==
* {{en}} [http://www.thesocialcontract.com/bookstore/product_info.php?cPath=9&products_id=79 The Social Contract Press Vol. 8, No. 3; Spring, 1998] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070301145742/http://www.thesocialcontract.com/bookstore/product_info.php?cPath=9&products_id=79 |date=2007-03-01 }} Edisi peringatan dua ratus tahun Malthus yang dipersembahkan keseluruhannya kepada Malthus
* {{en}} [http://www.
* {{en}} [http://www.naf.org.au/papers.htm National Academics Forum, Australia] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081020110110/http://www.naf.org.au/papers.htm |date=2008-10-20 }} kumpulan esai untuk Konferensi Dua Ratus Tahun Malthus 1998
== Rujukan ==
* Case, Karl E. & Fair, Ray C. (1999). ''Principles of Economics'' (edisi ke-5). Prentice-Hall. ISBN 0-13-961905-4.
* [[Samuel Hollander]]- ''The Economics of Thomas Robert Malthus'' (University of Toronto Press, 1997)
* Peterson, William (1999). ''Malthus, Founder Of Modern Demography'' (edisi ke-2) Transaction. ISBN 0-7658-0481-6.
* ''[http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/12276a.htm Theories of Overpopulation]'' - merujuk ke bagian yang berjudul ''Criticism of the Malthusian Theory''. situs Catholic Encyclopedia
* ''[http://www.unfpa.org/intercenter/food/morefood.htm More Food for More People But Not For All, and Not Forever] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051231111031/http://www.unfpa.org/intercenter/food/morefood.htm |date=2005-12-31 }}'' Situs Dana Kependudukan PBB
* ''[http://www.hti.umich.edu/cgi/p/pd-modeng/pd-modeng-idx?type=HTML&rgn=TEI.2&byte=53049319 Natural Theology; or, Evidences of the Existence and Attributes of the Deity]{{Pranala mati|date=Oktober 2022 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}'' oleh William Paley (1802). edisi ke-12 (1809) Teks diterbitkan oleh Universitas Michigan (Humanities Text Initiative)
* [[John Maddox]], ''The Doomsday Syndrome - An Assault on Pessimism'' (1972).
* [http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles_pdf/feast_of_malthus.pdf The Feast of Malthus] oleh [[Garrett Hardin]] dalam ''The Social Contract'' (1998)
* [[Ernst Mayr]] ''What evolution is'' (2001). Weidenfield & Nicolson. ISBN 0-297-60741-3
* [[John Maynard Smith]] ''The Theory of Evolution'' (1958, 1966, 1975). Canto (Cambridge University Press) - (1993, 1995, 1997, 2000). ISBN 0-521-45128-0
* [[Elliot Sober]] ''The Nature Of Selection'' (1984). University of Chicago Press. ISBN 0-226-76748-5. Juga untuk kutipan dari [[Ronald Fisher]].
* [[Carl Zimmer]] ''Evolution - The Triumph of an Idea'' (2001). Harper Collins. ISBN 0-06-019906-7
* [http://jclahr.com/bartlett/malthusian.html ''The Massive Movement to Marginalise the Modern Malthusian Message''] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060109152905/http://jclahr.com/bartlett/malthusian.html |date=2006-01-09 }} artikel oleh Profesor [[Albert Bartlett]]
* [http://human-nature.com/dm/chap2.html Online chapter ''MALTHUS AND THE EVOLUTIONISTS:THE COMMON CONTEXT OF BIOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL THEORY''] dari ''Darwin's Metaphor: Nature's Place in Victorian Culture'' oleh Profesor Robert M. Young (1985, 1988, 1994). Cambridge University Press.
* [http://human-nature.com/rmyoung/papers/pap107h.html ''MALTHUS ON MAN - IN ANIMALS NO MORAL RESTRAINT''] artikel mengenai pengaruh Malthus pada Darwin, oleh Profesor Robert M. Young
* Evans, L.T. (1998). ''Feeding the Ten Billion - Plants and Population Growth''. Cambridge University Press. Paperback, 247 hlm. Dipersembahkan kepada Malthus oleh si pengarang. ISBN 0-521-64685-5.
* Spiegel, Henry William. 1992. The Growth of Economic Thought. Durham: Duke University Press
* [http://www.iss.nl/faculty/ross/index.html Eric B. Ross] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060709015126/http://www.iss.nl/faculty/ross/index.html |date=2006-07-09 }} (1998) ''The Malthus factor
* [[Andrey Korotayev|Korotayev A.]], Malkov A., Khaltourina D. ''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth.'' Moscow: URSS, 2006. ISBN 5-484-00414-4 [http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&lang=en&blang=en&list=14&page=Book&id=34250].
* [[
* [[Andrey Korotayev|Korotayev A.]] & Khaltourina D. ''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.'' Moscow: URSS, 2006. ISBN 5-484-00560-4 [http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&lang=en&blang=en&list=14&page=Book&id=37485].
== Pranala luar ==
* {{en}} [http://www.econlib.org/library/Malthus/malPop.html ''An Essay on the Principle of Population,''] edisi pertama, 1798. Library of Economics and Liberty. Gratis online, teks lengkap dapat dicari.
* {{en}} [http://www.econlib.org/library/Malthus/malPlong.html ''An Essay on the Principle of Population,''] edisi ke-6, 1826. Library of Economics and Liberty. Gratis online, teks lengkap dapat dicari. Malthus menerbitkan sebuah revisi besar terhadap edisi * {{gutenberg author|id=Thomas_Robert_Malthus|name=Thomas Robert Malthus}}
* {{en}} [http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/malthus.htm Profil Malthus dan pranala yang luas] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060207102614/http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/malthus.htm |date=2006-02-07 }}
* {{en}} [http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=706&z=58 Biografi Malthus yang terfokus untuk siswa] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060219212548/http://www.tutor2u.net/newsmanager/templates/?a=706&z=58 |date=2006-02-19 }}
* {{en}} [http://www.economics.mcmaster.ca/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/index.html Kopi online dari beberapa karya Malthus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050409152713/http://www.economics.mcmaster.ca/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/index.html |date=2005-04-09 }}
* {{en}} [http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/malbib.htm Bibliografi Malthus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160817225316/http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/malbib.htm |date=2016-08-17 }}
* {{en}} [http://homepages.caverock.net.nz/~kh/bobperson.html Bibliografi Malthus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130518105508/http://homepages.caverock.net.nz/~kh/bobperson.html |date=2013-05-18 }} oleh Nigel Malthus, seorang keturunan Malthus dari saudara lelakinya, Sydenham Malthus
* {{en}} [http://desip.igc.org/malthus The International Society of Malthus]
* {{en}} [http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/publications.htm Publikasi Divisi Kependudukan PBB]
* {{en}} [http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/malthus/malthus.0.html Esai tentang Prinsip Kependudukan oleh Malthus] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020202040555/http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/malthus/malthus.0.html |date=2002-02-02 }}
* {{en}} [http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/malthus.html Thomas Malthus di UCMP]
* {{en}} [http://www.abetterearth.org/subcategory.php/171.html Malthusian Twaddle] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060830095720/http://www.abetterearth.org/subcategory.php/171.html |date=2006-08-30 }} oleh Ronald Bailey of [http://www.abetterearth.org A Better Earth]
* {{en}} [http://members.optusnet.com.au/exponentialist/index.htm Situs Eksponensialis] dipersembahkan kepada Malthus
[http://www.faculty.rsu.edu/%7Efelwell/Theorists/Malthus/Index.htm] T. Robert Malthus's Homepage
{{wikiquote}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Malthus, Thomas}}▼
{{Commonscat|Thomas Malthus}}
{{Authority control}}
▲{{DEFAULTSORT:Malthus, Thomas}}
[[Kategori:Matematikawan Inggris]]
[[Kategori:Teolog Inggris]]
[[Kategori:Ekonom Inggris]]
| |||